A Lithium-Ion Battery Degradation Prediction Model With Uncertainty Quantification for Its Predictive Maintenance

Abstract

Battery degradation modeling in the presence of uncertainty is a key but challenging issue in the applications of battery predictive maintenance. This paper develops a capacity prediction model with uncertainty quantification for lithium-ion batteries and proposes a dynamic maintenance strategy which can help to make an optimized decision at each battery cycle stage. To be specific, after using the one-dimensional convolution neural network (1dCNN), deep representative features hidden in original measured signals are extracted. Then, the bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) is applied to estimate the battery capacities, while the quantile regression (QR) layer is embedded into the construction of the Bi-LSTM network to obtain the capacities for different quantiles. Next, the kernel density estimation (KDE) is utilized to derive the probability density of the predicted points at each battery cycle stage. Thus, the combination of 1dCNN, Bi-LSTM, QR and KDE, named 1dCNN-BiLSTMQR-KDE, forms an efficacious capacity prediction model with reliable uncertainty management. Finally, the costs of different decisions at each battery cycle stage are evaluated, and the decision with the lower cost will be chosen. The whole proposition is verified on battery degradation datasets from NASA, and the comparison with other methods show that the proposed method is competitive.