A linear regression pattern for electricity price forecasting in the Iberian electricity market

Abstract

The Iberian Market for Electricity resulted from a cooperation process developed by the Portuguese and Spanish administrations, aiming to promote the integration of the electrical systems of both countries. This common market consists of organized markets or power exchanges, and non-organised markets where bilateral over-the-counter trading takes place with or without brokers. Within this scenario, electricity price forecasts have become fundamental to the process of decision-making and strategy development by market participants. The unique characteristics of electricity prices such as non-stationarity, non-linearity and high volatility make this task very difficult. For this reason, instead of a simple time forecast, market participants are more interested in a causal forecast that is essential to estimate the uncertainty involved in the price. This work focuses on modelling the impact of various explanatory variables on the electricity price through a multiple linear regression analysis. The quality of the estimated models obtained validates the use of statistical or causal methods, such as the Multiple Linear Regression Model, as a plausible strategy to achieve causal forecasts of electricity prices in medium and long-term electricity price forecasting. From the evaluation of the electricity price forecasting for Portugal and Spain, in the year of 2017, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) were 9.02% and 12.02%, respectively. In 2018, the MAPE, evaluated for 9 months, for Portugal and Spain equals 7.12% and 6.45%, respectively.