A less dusty future?

Climate and land use change are among the main drivers affecting virtually all species on earth. There were extensive studies projecting impacts of climate and land use changes on habitat loss and fragmentation but few on connectivity loss, and those that investigated connectivity did not disentangle the combined effects between climate change and land use change. This study uses the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) as a case study to illustrate an approach for disentangling the effects of climate change and human land use on population connectivity in the future. First, we assessed the current spatial pattern of population connectivity by simulating cumulative resistant kernels and factorial least‐cost paths with empirical field data. Then, we simulated the changes in connectivity due to future climate change under alternative emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in mid (2041–2060) and late (2061–2080) 21st century, which served as baseline scenarios of future connectivity. Finally, we estimated the changes in future connectivity due to human land use changes by adding a low and a high human land use activity scenario to the baseline climate change scenarios in our simulations. Alarmingly, all high emission scenarios, with or without human land use change, were projected to result in >99% reduction in current core areas of connectivity by the end of 21st century at 50th percentile threshold or above. This study demonstrates a spatially explicit scenario modeling approach to examine the interplay between future climate change and human land use on species connectivity. Our results suggest that regional land use regulations may be insufficient to conserve connectivity for HBB if nothing is done to reduce climate change at a global scale.

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Reviewed by: Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate Sam White (bio) Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. By William F. Ruddiman. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2005. Pp xiv+226. $19.95. It is a common trope among historians of environment and technology that supposedly modern developments often prove much older than we think and that many contemporary transformations find their antecedents deep in the past. Nevertheless, most would regard global warming as something truly new under the sun—an unprecedented impact of industrial technology. Yet if William Ruddiman is right, even anthropogenic climate change has been with us for millennia. In Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum Ruddiman advances two novel arguments about human-induced climate change. First, the author makes the case that a combination of carbon dioxide from forest clearance and methane from wet-rice agriculture began to alter Earth's atmosphere at least 5,000 years ago, preempting the onset of a new Ice Age. Second, Ruddiman contends that the Black Death of the fourteenth to fifteenth centuries and then the death of Native Americans from Old World disease in the sixteenth century led to such massive forest regrowth that CO2 drawn from the atmosphere set off the "Little Ice Age." Thus humans "took control" of climate long before the burning of coal created a new greenhouse effect starting in the late 1800s. Throughout, Ruddiman's book remains well-written and remarkably accessible for such a technical field as climatology. His ideas are wellordered and clearly presented with the aid of useful charts and graphs illustrating his main points about changes in the atmosphere. Ruddiman has also done an adequate if unremarkable job reading up on such topics as the history of agriculture, deforestation, and disease. Altogether, this is a rare work on climate history that professors can safely assign to upper-level undergraduates—and that alone makes the book worthwhile. Contentious though they are, Ruddiman's arguments are never mere speculation. The book does an excellent job explaining the basic atmospheric science behind glacial cycles, and it presents convincing quantitative evidence of past atmospheric changes, pointing out the likely role of anthropogenic deforestation and agriculture in the late Holocene. The author's credentials as an established climate scientist lend further weight to the theory. Nevertheless, Ruddiman's arguments are speculative. The author's main contention about ancient human impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane rests on reasonable but still unproven analogies with past interglacials. Likewise, the author's argument that an early modern drop in atmospheric CO2 triggered the Little Ice Age is intriguing, but given the [End Page 182] already-established roles of solar and volcanic forcing, it may be one explanation too many. More important, by considering only effects on greenhouse-gas levels, the author simplifies the climate impact of deforestation and agriculture in temperate zones. Early clearance and farming also raised surface albedo and dust in the atmosphere, with cooling effects that might have offset greenhouse-gas emissions. Nor does Ruddiman consider another theory recently making the rounds among climate scientists: that early Holocene forest growth was itself largely the result of the manmade extinction of large Pleistocene browsers and grazers like the mammoth! These complications point to a more fundamental issue in the book: the notion that at some point in the past, human technology "took control of climate." What Ruddiman really demonstrates is that far from achieving "control," human land use has long had profound and complex unintended consequences for Earth's atmosphere. For historians of technology, this will probably prove the most interesting lesson from Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum and the one most likely to stir up discussion in classes and seminars. Sam White Sam White is an assistant professor at Oberlin College, where he teaches global environmental history. His first book, The Climate of Rebellion in the Early Modern Ottoman Empire, on the Little Ice Age in the Middle East, is forthcoming from Cambridge University Press. Copyright © 2011 The Society for the History of Technology

Detecting vulnerability of humid tropical forests to multiple stressors

Managing flood risks in a changing climate

Insect biodiversity is changing rapidly, driven by a complex suite of pressures, foremost among which are human land use, land-use intensification, and increasingly climate change. Bumblebees deliver important pollination services to wild plants and human crops, but we lack large-scale empirical evidence on how land use and climate change interact to drive bumblebee biodiversity changes. We assess bumblebee occupancy responses to interactive effects of land use and climate pressures across North America and Western Europe. Occupancy increases with landscape natural habitat and decreases with the duration of human use of landscapes. Responses to historical climate warming are negative in natural habitats but positive in human land uses, while human land use reduces occupancy most in the centre of species’ temperature niches. We estimate that the combined pressures have reduced bumblebee occupancy by 61% across sampled natural habitats, and 65% across human land uses, suggesting that treating present-day natural habitats as an undisturbed reference is misleading. Our results can inform efforts to conserve bumblebee biodiversity in the face of ongoing land-use changes and accelerating climatic changes.One-sentence summaryLand use and climate change interact to drive large declines in bumblebee occupancy in both natural and human-modified habitats

Climate change and habitat fragmentation are considered key pressures on biodiversity, and mammalian carnivores with a limited geographical distribution are particularly vulnerable. The kodkodLeopardus guigna, a small felid endemic to the temperate forests of southern Chile and Argentina, has the smallest geographical range of any New World felid. Although the species occurs in protected areas in both countries, it is not known how well these areas protect the kodkod either currently or under climate change scenarios. We used species distribution models and spatial analyses to assess the distribution of the kodkod, examining the effects of changes in human land use and future climate change. We also assessed the species’ present representation in protected areas and in light of climate change scenarios. We found that the kodkod has already lost 5.5% of its range as a result of human land use, particularly in central areas of its distribution with intermediate habitat suitability. Climate change, together with human land use, will affect 40% of the kodkod's present potential distribution by the year 2050. Currently, 12.5% of the species’ potential distribution lies in protected areas and this will increase to 14% in the future. This increase does not, however, mean an increase in protected habitat but rather a reduction of the species' total potential range; a relatively larger percentage will be protected in Argentina than in Chile but the species is more susceptible to extinction in Argentina and the Chilean Matorral.

Societal Impact StatementForest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable.Summary Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

Climate change and human land use are thought to play a dominant role in the dynamics of European central-latitude forests in the Holocene. A wide range of mathematical and statistical models have been used to study the effects of these variables on forest dynamics, including physiologically-based simulations and phenomenological community models. However, for statistical analysis of pollen count data, compositional data analysis is particularly well suited, because pollen counts give only relative information. We studied the effects of changes in human land use and temperature on European central-latitude forest dynamics at 7 sites over most of the last 10ka, using a stochastic model for compositional dynamics of pollen count data. Our approach has a natural ecological interpretation in terms of relative proportional population growth rates, and does not require information on pollen production, dispersal, or deposition. We showed that the relative proportional population growth rates of Fagus and Picea were positively affected by intensified human land use, and that those of Tilia and Ulmus were negatively affected. Also, the relative proportional population growth rate of Fagus was negatively affected by increases in temperature above about 18∘C. Overall, the effects of temperature on the rate of change of forest composition were more important than those of human land use. Although there were aspects of dynamics, such as short-term oscillations, that our model did not capture, our approach is broadly applicable and founded on ecological principles, and gave results consistent with current thinking.

Forest fragmentation and its correlation to human land use change in the state of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia

Impacts on food web properties of island invertebrate communities vary between different human land uses

Human land use changes are threatening the integrity and health of coastal ecosystems worldwide. Intensified land use for anthropogenic purposes increases sedimentation rates, pollutants, and nutrient concentrations into adjacent coastal areas, often with detrimental effects on marine life and ecosystem functioning. However, how these factors interact to influence ecosystem health in mangrove forests is poorly understood. This study investigates the effects of catchment human land use on mangrove forest architecture and sedimentary attributes at a landscape-scale. Thirty sites were selected along a gradient of human land use within a narrow latitudinal range, to minimise the effects of varying climatic conditions. Land use was quantified using spatial analysis tools with existing land use databases (LCDB5). Twenty-six forest architectural and sedimentary variables were collected from each site. The results revealed a significant effect of human land use on ten out of 26 environmental variables.Eutrophication, characterised by changes in redox potential, pH, and sediment nutrient concentrations, was strongly associated with increasing human land use. The δ15N values of sediments and leaves also indicated increased anthropogenic nitrogen input. Furthermore, the study identified a positive correlation between human land use and tree density, indicating that increased nutrient delivery from catchments contributes to enhanced mangrove growth. Propagule and seedling densities were also positively correlated with human land use, suggesting potential recruitment success mechanisms. This research underpins the complex interactions between human land use and mangrove ecosystems, revealing changes in carbon dynamics, potential alterations in ecosystem services, and a need for holistic management approaches that consider the interconnectedness of species and their environment. These findings provide essential insights for regional ecosystem models, coastal management, and restoration strategies to address the impacts of human pressures on temperate mangrove forests, even in estuaries that may be relatively healthy.

Abstract. Desert dust perturbs climate by directly and indirectly interacting with incoming solar and outgoing long wave radiation, thereby changing precipitation and temperature, in addition to modifying ocean and land biogeochemistry. While we know that desert dust is sensitive to perturbations in climate and human land use, previous studies have been unable to determine whether humans were increasing or decreasing desert dust in the global average. Here we present observational estimates of desert dust based on paleodata proxies showing a doubling of desert dust during the 20th century over much, but not all the globe. Large uncertainties remain in estimates of desert dust variability over 20th century due to limited data. Using these observational estimates of desert dust change in combination with ocean, atmosphere and land models, we calculate the net radiative effect of these observed changes (top of atmosphere) over the 20th century to be −0.14 ± 0.11 W/m2 (1990–1999 vs. 1905–1914). The estimated radiative change due to dust is especially strong between the heavily loaded 1980–1989 and the less heavily loaded 1955–1964 time periods (−0.57 ± 0.46 W/m2), which model simulations suggest may have reduced the rate of temperature increase between these time periods by 0.11 °C. Model simulations also indicate strong regional shifts in precipitation and temperature from desert dust changes, causing 6 ppm (12 PgC) reduction in model carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere over the 20th century. Desert dust carries iron, an important micronutrient for ocean biogeochemistry that can modulate ocean carbon storage; here we show that dust deposition trends increase ocean productivity by an estimated 6% over the 20th century, drawing down an additional 4 ppm (8 PgC) of carbon dioxide into the oceans. Thus, perturbations to desert dust over the 20th century inferred from observations are potentially important for climate and biogeochemistry, and our understanding of these changes and their impacts should continue to be refined.

Atmospheric mineral aerosols influence climate and biogeochemistry, and thus understanding the impact of humans on mineral aerosols is important. Our longest continuous record of in situ atmospheric desert dust measurements comes from Barbados, which shows fluctuations of a factor of 4 in surface mass concentrations between the 1960s and the 1980s [Prospero and Nees, 1986]. Understanding fluctuations this large should help us understand how natural and anthropogenic factors change mineral aerosol sources, transport, distributions, and deposition, although we are limited in our ability to interpret the results as there is a quantitative record only at one location. We test the hypothesis that dry topographic lows (and not disturbed sources such as cultivated areas or new desert regions) are the sources of desert dust, using a hierarchy of models as well meteorological data sets to look at decadal scale changes in the North Atlantic desert dust. We find that the inclusion of a disturbed source improves our simulations in many (but not all) comparisons. Unfortunately, we are severely limited by the accuracy of the available data sets and models in making definitive statements about the role of disturbed sources or anthropogenic activity in changing the atmospheric desert dust cycle. Processes that might change the size or intensity of desert dust sources in North Africa (such as new sources due to desertification or land use) may be difficult to distinguish from topographic low sources in models due to their similar geographical locations and impact on atmospheric aerosol distributions.

Understanding how biodiversity is distributed is increasingly becoming important under ongoing and projected human land use. Measures of beta diversity, and its partitions, can offer insights for conservation and restoration of biodiversity. We ask how different species, functional groups, and land use contribute to beta diversity, and whether invasive species have a negative influence on beta diversity. We address these questions using ant assemblages (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) at 277 sites distributed across five geomorphic land use types in Goa, India. We recorded 68 species (35 genera, 7 subfamilies) of which 5 were invasive. We classified them into eight functional groups. Oecophylla smaragdina —a common tropical arboreal species, and Anoplolepis gracilepis —a globally significant invasive, contributed the most to beta diversity. Large‐bodied omnivores which may influence soil functions contributed more to beta diversity than small‐bodied predators. Lateritic plateaus contributed most to beta diversity, whereas human‐influenced plantations contributed the least. Beta diversity across sites was related to species turnover, whereas nestedness was more prominent for functional groups. This indicates how species replace one another with change in land use, but functional roles are lost despite such turnover. Sites with human land use had higher incidence of invasive species, and invaded sites contributed less to beta diversity than non‐invaded sites. Human land use strongly influences diversity and distribution of ant assemblages. Land use may spare local species richness, but not functional groups. A small number of invasive species exert negative influence even in very speciose communities.