Abstract
Long term energy sector planning is essential for a country to achieve sustainable development in all its social, economic and environmental dimensions. Furthermore, it will ensure the energy supply security of the country. The energy supply side needs to deal with technical, economic and environmental assessments of all energy supply options such as natural resources, energy imports, energy exports etc. The energy supply side should follow policy directives of the government and should take into account all other related constraints. Similarly, the demand side too has to deal with the assessment of future energy needs of various consumption sectors, policy directives etc. In this study the software MESSAGE was used to model the energy chains associated with petroleum, coal and Natural Gas (NG) in relation to Sri Lanka. The national energy chain was modelled considering the modernizations of the existing refinery through the introduction of NG to the energy sector and the introduction of electric vehicles. In addition, the viability of constructing a urea plant was also explored.
Highlights
Sri Lanka being a country with a scarcity of fossil fuels has to depend mainly on the imports of petroleum and coal, for its energy requirements
High Petroleum Price Case In this case, the prices of all the petroleum products and crude oil were taken to be 50% higher when compared to the base case value. (NPV of the solution = 85,180 USD Millions) There was no major change compared to the results of the base case
Low Petroleum Price Case In this case, the prices of all the petroleum products and crude oil were taken to be 50% lower when compared to the base case value. (NPV of the solution = 37,048 USD Millions) Under this case, Sapugaskanda Oil Refinery Expansion and Modernization (SOREM) becomes nonviable
Summary
Sri Lanka being a country with a scarcity of fossil fuels has to depend mainly on the imports of petroleum and coal, for its energy requirements. A comprehensive study on future energy planning is being done only for the electricity sector of Sri Lanka which is the wellknown Long Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP) prepared by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) [1,2]. Since petroleum, coal and NG can be used for electricity generation, and for other applications such as transportation and industrial uses, the results of the LTGEP might become invalid when all those sectors are considered. The analysis of a model covering the energy chains associated with petroleum, coal, NG and electricity will give more accurate results pertaining to the future energy sector of Sri Lanka. The objective of the study was to prepare a model to formulate the least cost long-term energy supply strategy for Sri Lanka using petroleum, coal and natural gas for the period from 2016 to 2035. The paper has 7 sections including an overview about MESSAGE, preparation of the energy network for Sri Lanka, results of the study, sensitivity analysis, limitations of the model and conclusions
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