Abstract
Clinicians have proposed that big wins early in a gambler's betting experience can lead to increased involvement, and eventually problematic gambling. Understanding how this effect manifests in online sports betting is important, as this form of gambling has grown increasingly popular worldwide and continues to expand. MethodsUsing matched pair analysis and other methods (e.g., survival analysis, fixed effects regression), we examined big wins’ ability to predict future gambling involvement and behavior using bet level data from 36,328 sports gamblers who subscribed to a large, European online gambling operator. Big wins were defined two ways. ResultsBig wins in sports betting were associated with increased engagement, losses, and risk in the following weeks, with the impact declining over time. The exact timing of when a big win occurs after subscribing does not appear to have a major effect on subsequent behaviors. These findings held for both definitions of big wins. ImplicationsThis study supports the existence of a big win effect in online sports betting, but more research is needed to determine whether there is an “early” big win effect, and whether big wins are indeed associated with problematic gambling.
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