A Large Group Emergency Decision Making Method Considering Scenarios and Unknown Attribute Weights

Abstract

Once an emergency event (EE) happens, emergency decision-making (EDM) plays a key role in mitigating the loss. EDM is a complex problem. Compared with conventional decision-making problems, more experts participate in decision-making. It usually has the feature of large group emergency decision-making (LGEDM). This paper proposes a large group emergency decision-making method based on Bayesian theory, relative entropy, and Euclidean distance, which is used for large group emergency decision-making with uncertain probabilities of occurrence, unknown attribute weights, and expert weights. In order to improve the accuracy of decision-making, Bayesian method is introduced into the calculation of scenario probability in the process of LGEDM. In the decision-making process, the experts’ risk preference is considered. The experts’ decision preference information is a symmetric and uniformly distributed interval value. The perceived utility values of the experts are obtained by introducing prospect theory. Euclidean distance is used to measure the contributions of experts to aggregation similarity, and different weights are given to experts according to their contributions. A relative entropy model with completely unknown weight information constraints is established to obtain attribute weights, which takes into account the differences of different alternatives under the same attribute and the differences between alternatives and the ideal solution. An example of nuclear power emergency decision-making illustrates the effectiveness of this method.