A large fault partially reactivated during two contiguous seismic sequences in Central Italy: The role of geometrical and frictional heterogeneities

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Earthquakes can rupture multiple fault segments as well as faults with complex geometry, or heterogeneous pre-stress and frictional properties. These observations have been documented mainly for moderate-to-large earthquakes by inverting geodetic and seismic data and by studying the influence of fault orientation and rheology within the regional stress field.In this work we have studied the Gorzano fault, GF, a large normal fault within the active fault system of Central Italy that during the last two largest Italian seismic sequences, L'Aquila (2009) and Amatrice-Visso-Norcia (2016–2017), was reactivated via a series of 5.0 < Mw < 6.0 events. We calculated moment tensor solutions for 134 M > 3 events and evaluated their normalized slip-tendency. Merging these results with high resolution earthquake catalogs, available M > 5 earthquake slip distributions, and frictional properties characterizing the activated fault, we develop a mechanical model and discuss potential earthquake rupture scenarios.The GF is an optimally oriented fault within the regional stress field and from, the reactivation via aftershock or mainshock slip of complementary fault portions from 2009 to 2017 indicates that the fault behaves as a single fault structure. The geometrical and mechanical heterogeneities suggest that the most likely slip behavior of GF is the reactivation of different fault portions with M > 5.0. However, due to favorable initial stress conditions, we suggest that a seismic rupture can produce the complete reactivation of the fault, resulting in a M 6.5–6.6 earthquake as documented in paleoseismological data.