A land-use allocation optimization model to mitigate potential seismic damages

Abstract

Seismic hazard mitigation is becoming an important consideration in planning for disaster-resilient cities. Seismic hazard and urban vulnerability are the two major factors in the assessment of seismic risk. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground displacement (PGD) are the two major measures of seismic hazards, and land-use and building patterns characterize urban vulnerability. A set of pseudodata is generated by an earthquake-engineering simulation model for the city of Taichung, Taiwan, using twenty-two significant historical seismic events. A seismic damage model is first statistically estimated, relating monetary building damages to seismic impacts (PGA and PGD) and building inventories (residential, commercial, industrial, government). This damage function is then incorporated into a seismic land-use optimization model to allocate future land uses to the available land while minimizing aggregate seismic damages. Solving the model under the twenty-two seismic events and under different regional growth scenarios generates robust site rankings, pointing to priority locations for future activities away from the most severe historical earthquakes. These rankings can help decision makers allocate future activities under the uncertainty of both regional development and seismic hazard.