Abstract
An eutrophication management optimization model (EMOM) was developed and applied for Lake Balaton - a typical shallow water body - in order to establish a short term control strategy. It incorporates a stochastic load response model which was derived from the Monte Carlo type usage of a four-compartment, four-box dynamic lake eutrophication model after developing synthetic time series generators for forcing functions. EMOM also includes a planning mode nutrient loading model which accounts for various uncertainties and stochastic effects. Major control options are phosphorus precipitation on existing sewage treatment plants and the construction of pre-reservoirs. Among alternative objective functions and models formulated, here a linearized expectation - variance model is discussed which captures the major stochastic features of the problem. The “optimal” short term strategy is worked out for Lake Balaton. In the frame of a sensitivity analysis the importance of various physical, chemical, biological and economic parameters is evaluated as regarding for eutrophication management.
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