A Ki-67 proliferation index cutoff value of 1% to predict 5-year RFS and OS in patients with pulmonary carcinoid tumors.

Abstract

11119 Background: Evaluation of prognostic factors in carcinoid tumors of the lung is limited due to the rarity of disease. This study assessed Ki-67 expression and other clinical variables as prognostic factors in 262 patients. Methods: A systematic search of Mayo Clinic lung cancer epidemiology and tumor registry databases from 1997 to 2009 identified 449 consecutive patients, with 262 having available tissue blocks [40 atypical carcinoids (AC) and 222 typical carcinoids (TC)]. Clinical data were collected by chart review. Tissue blocks were reviewed by 1/3 pathologists using WHO criteria. Tumors were tested for the Ki-67 index using digital image analysis (tumor tracing) by two operators. The association and predictive value of the factors with recurrence-free and overall survival (RFS and OS) were explored using univariable Cox proportional Hazards model and concordance (c) index. Results: Age, stage, smoking history, lymph node (LN) involvement and Ki-67 index were significant prognostic factors for RFS and OS. Median follow-up on alive-patients is 5 years (range: 0.006-5). Median percentage of Ki-67 index of AC and TC were 1.61% and 0.56% (P<0.0001), respectively. Patients with Ki-67 ≥ 1% had significantly worse RFS (HR=3.69, P<0.0001) and OS (HR=3.69, P=0.0007) compared with Ki-67 < 1% group. The c-index of Ki-67 (0.65) was comparable to the pathologic distinction between AC and TC (0.62 for original diagnosis and 0.63 for central-reviewed diagnosis). Conclusions: Ki-67 index cutoff value of 1% is a valuable prognostic biomarker for pulmonary carcinoids based on this large cohort. Our data also provide strong evidence for clinical variables such as age, stage, smoking history, and LN involvement as clinical prognostic factors in pulmonary carcinoids. A prognostic calculator incorporating Ki-67 and clinical variables is under development. [Table: see text]