A kernel-based trend pattern tracking system for portfolio optimization

Abstract

We propose a novel kernel-based trend pattern tracking (KTPT) system for portfolio optimization. It includes a three-state price prediction scheme, which extracts both of the following and reverting patterns from the asset price trend to make future price predictions. Moreover, KTPT is equipped with a novel kernel-based tracking system to optimize the portfolio, so as to capture a potential growth of the asset price effectively. The kernel measures the similarity between the current portfolio and the predicted price relative to control the influence of each asset when optimizing the portfolio, which is different from some previous kernels that measure the probability of occurrence of a price relative. Extensive experiments on 5 benchmark datasets from real-world stock markets with various assets in different time periods indicate that KTPT outperforms other state-of-the-art strategies in cumulative wealth and other risk-adjusted metrics, showing its effectiveness in portfolio optimization.