A Joint Study of Seismicity and SAR Interferometry Observations for Assessing the Possibility of an Eruption of the Dormant Bolshaya Udina Volcano

Abstract

Seismicity began to be recorded in October 2017 around the dormant Bolshaya Udina Volcano (B. Udina in what follows) situated 10 km southeast of Plosky Tolbachik Volcano. Seismic tomography showed the existence of a long-lived magma chamber south of B. Udina in the area of the Tolud River. The chamber has its top at a depth of about 15 km, and may probably be connected to the Plosky Tolbachik plumbing system (Koulakov et al., 2017). Saltykov et al. (2018) and Koulakov et al. (2019) related the observed resumption of seismic activity to a hypothetical emplacement of magma beneath the Udina volcanoes, pointing out a high likelihood of the resumption of volcanic activity. The present study examines data from permanent seismic stations showing a systematic displacement of the center of seismic energy southward from B. Udina from October 2017 through August 2019. The center characterizes the location of the volume that generates the bulk of seismicity. We used images of the Sentinel-1A satellite (wavelength 5.6 cm) taken from a descending orbit of track 60 during the period from June 7, 2017 through September 23, 2017 (10 images) and during the period from May 21, 2018 to September 30, 2018 (12 images) to determine time series and average velocities of displacement on the slopes of B. Udina. Persistent scatterers could only be identified at the foot of B. Udina. An analysis of displacement time series for the surface of the volcano showed that the character of displacements in 2017 and 2018 on the southwestern and eastern slopes remained nearly the same, while the average rate of displacement on the northwestern slope decreased in 2018. We used three images of the ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 satellite (wavelength 23.5 cm) taken on October 4, 2016, June 13, 2016, and October 2, 2018 from an ascending orbit to construct paired interferograms, which characterize displacements for the time period between images. The displacements on both interferograms did not exceed a few centimeters, except for narrow zones confined to local relief forms. The deformations thus detected were most likely due to surface processes. The deformed volumes related to pressure changes in the magma chamber at a depth of 5 km must have linear dimensions of 10–15 km, while the displacement areas detected in the satellite images are considerably smaller. These results suggested an alternative model that postulates the resumption of seismic activity to accompany the retreat and sinking of magma melt from B. Udina into the chamber in the Tolud R. area as identified by tomographic techniques.