A Joint Estimate of the Precipitation Climate Signal in Europe Using Eight Regional Models and Five Observational Datasets

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents an analysis of the precipitation climate signal in Europe emerging from a simulation of heterogeneous regional climate models (RCMs) using five observational datasets as the reference for present day climate conditions. Current climate simulations, as well as those from the A2 family of scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A2), from eight RCMs involved in the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project have been cross-compared with data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) databases for Europe. The RCMs used are HIRHAM, the Climate High Resolution Model (CHRM), the Rossby Centre Atmosphere–Ocean (RCAO) model, the GKSS Climate Version of the Local Model (CLM), the Hadley Center RCM (HadRM3H), the Atmospheric Hydrostatic Regional Model (REMO), the Prognostic Model at the Mesoscale (PROMES), and the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model (RACMO). The comparison shows that the climate signal has to be interpreted depending on the reference data used. Although each validation dataset has its own relative merits and shortcomings, it is known that all of the datasets present variable uncertainties and error sources, which impedes consideration of a single dataset as the only valid representation of actual precipitation. Hence, it is suggested that a robust joint estimate of changes in future precipitation might include the uncertainties of both the RCMs and those of the observational datasets. After accounting for the difference between observed and simulated precipitation in the present climate, the analysis of such joint estimates reveals significant agreement in the climate signal for most of Europe. This lends confidence to the idea that the RCMs are able to correctly simulate future changes in precipitation.