A jack pine survival model for spring-lifting and planting delays in Ontario

Abstract

The general problem of developing a model capable of exploring the survival response of seedlings to tradeoffs in the timing of spring lifting, planting and cold storage was investigated. After the construction of an overall model framework, one general and three specific functions to predict first-year survival for batches of 2 + 0 jack pine seelings were developed. The independent variables required by the functions include: cold storage duration (days), average air and soil temperature during planting (°C), cumulative degree days at time of planting (°C), ratio of terminal-to-top length at time of lifting, and cumulative degree days at time of lifting (°C). A brief example of the type of use to which such functions could be put, and an indication of the expected level of confidence that may be placed in such a prediction, is presented. The survival functions developed in this study were not designed for widespread use throughout the Province of Ontario. At most they should be limited to 2 + 0 jack pine planting stock originating from Swastika Nursery, and planted nearby.