A hybrid SVR-PSO model to predict concentration of sediment in typical and debris floods

Abstract

Since sediment concentration is an effective factor on increasing debris flood’s peak flow and damages from floods, developing new models to predict the sediment concentration of debris floods has crucial importance. In this study, a hybrid SVR-PSO model was proposed to predict the concentration of sediment in typical and debris floods, and it was examined in three basins located in Gilan, Mazandaran, and Tehran Provinces, Iran. Mean elevation and slope of the basin, the area of the basin, current day’s rainfall, the rainfall of previous days (1–3 days before flood) for all rain-gauge stations of the basins, as well as the discharge of the previous day, were used as the input variables of the model. Then, various combinations of variables were tested to assess the factors influencing the concentration of sediment in typical and debris floods in order to find the best variable combination with a high performance in predicting the concentration of sediment in the studied floods. The results showed that basin elevation, current day’s rainfall, previous day’s discharge, rainfall of the previous day, basin area, rainfall of the previous two days, basin slope, and rainfall of the previous three days were the key factors influencing the concentration of sediment in typical and debris floods, respectively. Coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error were estimated 0.96, 0.003, and 14.38% for the proposed model at the testing phase, respectively. This implies model’s good performance for predicting the concentration of sediment in typical and debris floods so that the present model can provide reliable predictions of flood character in basins.