A hybrid random forests and artificial neural networks bagging ensemble for landslide susceptibility modelling

Abstract

In this paper, an original methodology for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is presented. It consists of bagging ensembles of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and random forests (RFs), and hybrid bagging ensembles of these models. It is applied on the area of the Itajaí-Açu river valley. In December 2020, there was an extreme rainfall in the region, which triggered landslides. The RF ensemble presented slightly higher accuracy (0.941) than the ANN ensemble (0.940), but the ANN ensemble had a more balanced relation between sensitivity (0.966) and specificity (0.915) than the RF ensemble (specificity = 0.992, sensitivity = 0.891). The mixed ANN-RF ensemble presented the higher accuracy of all (0.950), and a good balance between sensitivity (0.948) and specificity (0.951), being considered the best model within those analyzed. The hybrid ensemble, together with classification threshold adjustment, removed discrepancies on the maps between both models by attenuating them.