A Hybrid Petroleum Fiscal System for Investment in the Exploration and Production E&P of Hydrocarbon

Abstract

Abstract Globally, there are two types of petroleum fiscal system; the concessionary and the contractual petroleum fiscal system. The main differences between the two types of petroleum fiscal system is the ownership of the resources and some distinct fiscal terms. The contractual petroleum fiscal system specifies a cost recovery option and profit oil split unlike the concessionary petroleum fiscal system that allows the contractor to recoup his capital before payment of tax. This tends to increase the risk associated with the host government revenue as investment in the production of hydrocarbon is filled with uncertainties. There is a need to redesign the concessionary petroleum fiscal to enable it reduce the risk associated with the host government revenue by making the host government to earn revenue early from petroleum investment. This research therefore evaluated a hybrid petroleum fiscal system for investment in the exploration and production of hydrocarbon. The concessionary petroleum fiscal system was adjusted to include a cost recovery option. Petroleum economic model for investment in a typical onshore oil field was built using spreadsheet modelling technique with the fiscal terms in the hybrid petroleum fiscal system embedded in it. The cost recovery option and oil price in the model were varied between 0-100% and $20-$100 per barrel. The NCF, IRR and payout period of the investment were determined. It was observed that the lower the cost recovery option, the higher the host government revenue. From the profitability analysis of the investment in the hybrid petroleum fiscal system, it was observed that when the price of oil was $100/bbl, the NCF of the host government was $9146 and $8426.3 for 0% and 80% cost recovery option. The lower the cost recovery option, the higher the payout period and the lower the internal rate of return. Though lower cost recovery increased the host government revenue more but it may make the hybrid petroleum fiscal system unattractive for investment in periods of low oil price. Hence a higher cost recovery option was recommended for the use of this type of petroleum fiscal system.