A hybrid multiple criteria decision-making model for the sustainable management of aquifers

Abstract

In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision-making (HMCDM) model was proposed for prioritizing scenarios for managing groundwater use from an aquifer. Three scenarios, including the construction of subsurface dams, the use of artificial recharge and reducing groundwater use by 5% and 10% were considered to assess the most sustainable development approach. The examined MCDM models were: simple additive weighting (SAW); and MTAHP which is a hybridization of the modified TOPSIS and the analytic hierarchy process models. The criteria proposed for determining the order preference of the scenarios included the sustainable development index (IU) and a modified water exploitation index as well as economic, social and environmental indices. To assess the technical and economic impacts of the management scenarios, modeling of the aquifer was simulated for a 3-year period using these scenarios. The results of the assessment indicated that the scenario of water withdrawal reduction by 10% was the best scenario determined in MTAHP followed by a reduction in groundwater withdrawal by 5%, the use of artificial recharge and the construction of a subsurface dam, respectively. The difference between the results of MTAHP and SAW models was in their first and third ranks, in such a way artificial recharge scored the first rank in SAW model and the third rank in MTAHP model, also withdrawal reduction by 10% scored third rank in SAW model and first rank in MTAHP model. The results of these two models have demonstrated that the construction of a subsurface dam in Shahrekord aquifer is not an appropriate management option. According to the results of this study, MTAHP models can be applied for ranking feasible management scenarios in aquifers using the redefined sustainable development and modified groundwater exploitation indices introduced in this study.