A Hybrid Model for Short-Term Energy Load Prediction Based on Transfer Learning with LightGBM for Smart Grids in Smart Energy Systems

Abstract

ABSTRACT Electricity load prediction plays a vital role in energy management. The necessity of combining scattered power generation channels of sustainable energy and other substitute resources into distribution grid networks is increasing because of the 4.1 percent rise in world electricity since 2021. The utilization of probability power generators and energy storage is maximized by short-term load prediction methods, which make it possible to anticipate potential energy usage. To facilitate the growth of energy systems in quite a sustainable way, urban energy planners utilize a range of methods and technological advances, including simulation, probability optimization, comprehensive improvement, and modelling techniques for predicting power requirements. Predicting energy consumption at granular time scales (e.g., hourly or sub-hourly intervals) is common practice for short-term energy load prediction. For similar time-series forecasting challenges, the authors have decided to use transfer learning (TL) with light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM).1 This model can benefit from models trained on larger data sets through TL, which might boost prediction accuracy. Energy prediction and effective resource utilization largely support the accurate transition of energy systems. In this paper, the authors propose a hybrid model for short-term energy load prediction. Based on TL to optimize LightGBM (OLGBM) for smart grids, The proposed model first applies data pre-processing using an abnormal supplement strategy with an immediate deviation selection technique. This phase eliminates the missing values and extracts the required features. The second phase uses a TL-OLGBM with hyperparameters. The TL method helps to learn the dynamic time scale and complex data patterns, and the hyperparameters are tuned via the Bayesian optimization technique, which addresses the challenge of short-term load forecasting (STLF) and increases forecasting accuracy. Finally, an optimized LightGBM model is applied, combining the time and energy features to predict effective energy forecasting. The proposed model gained a 2.834589 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value and a 0.9706495 GINI index after execution on the prescribed data set. We compare the performance of the proposed model with other comparable models, and the simulation outcomes show that the model can generate the best results for MAPE, accuracy, and root-mean-square deviation (RMSE).