A hybrid model for deep learning short-term power load forecasting based on feature extraction statistics techniques

Abstract

Accurate and reliable load forecasting can ensure the safety and economy of power system operation. To improve the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting, this paper adopts feature extraction combined with a variety of machine learning methods,(Empirical wavelet decomposition (EWT), Convolutional neural network (CNN) model, Recurrent neural network (RNN) model, Long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, Bayesian optimization (BOA) algorithm). A new hybrid forecasting model, the EWT-CNN-S-RNN + LSTM model is proposed to predict power consumption. In this method, the fixed mode of EWT decomposition is used to extract statistical features, and the LSTM/RNN model is selected according to the statistical features. This method uses the Bayesian optimization (BOA) algorithm to optimize the parameters to solve the model gradient explosion problem. Based on the electricity consumption data of 2007 (Australian Energy Market Operator) and a total of 336 power load data, a good load forecasting result is obtained, which can provide indirect support for power regulation and sustainable development of electricity.