Abstract
COVID-19 is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has a case-fatality rate of 2–3%, with higher rates among elderly patients and patients with comorbidities. Radiologically, COVID-19 is characterised by multifocal ground-glass opacities, even for patients with mild disease. Clinically, patients with COVID-19 present respiratory symptoms, which are very similar to other respiratory virus infections. Our knowledge regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still very limited. These facts make it vitally important to establish mechanisms that allow to model and predict the evolution of the virus and to analyze the spread of cases under different circumstances. The objective of this article is to present a model developed for the evolution of COVID in the city of Manizales, capital of the Department of Caldas, Colombia, focusing on the methodology used to allow its application to other cases, as well as on the monitoring tools developed for this purpose. This methodology is based on a hybrid model which combines the population dynamics of the SIR model of differential equations with extrapolations based on recurrent neural networks. This combination provides self-explanatory results in terms of a coefficient that fluctuates with the restraint measures, which may be further refined by expert rules that capture the expected changes in such measures.
Highlights
A new virus called SARS-CoV-2 has caused a worldwide health crisis, which has been difficult to tackle as a result of the limited knowledge regarding the virus
The first cases of Coronavirus were reported in China, which became the epicenter of COVID-19 in January
This paper presents a model developed to forecast the evolution of SARS-CoV-2; it is an artificial intelligence based model that combines several algorithms
Summary
A new virus called SARS-CoV-2 has caused a worldwide health crisis, which has been difficult to tackle as a result of the limited knowledge regarding the virus. The scientific community has only been able to learn about the virus as the pandemic progressed and more information was available. It has been possible to determine morbidity and mortality rates in different population groups, as well as other environmental and social factors. There is still a lack of information regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It has not been possible to identify the factors that lead to serious illness in some. The first cases of Coronavirus were reported in China, which became the epicenter of COVID-19 in January. There was only a small amount of cases in other countries, which had been imported by travelers.
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