A hybrid linear‐neural model for river flow forecasting

Abstract

This paper presents a novel hybrid linear‐neural (LN) model formulation to effectively model rainfall‐runoff processes. The central idea of the proposed model framework is that the hidden layer of an artificial neural network (ANN) model be designed with a combination of linear and nonlinear neurons. A training algorithm for the proposed model is designed based on minimum description length criteria. The advantage of the algorithm is that the final architecture of the LN model is arrived at during the training process, thus avoiding selection from a class of models. The proposed model has been developed and evaluated for its performance for forecasting the river flow of Kolar basin, in India. The values of three performance evaluation criteria, namely, the coefficient of efficiency, the root‐mean‐square error, and the coefficient of correlation, were found to be very good and consistent for flows forecasted 1 hour in advance by the LN model. The value of the relative error in peak flow prediction was within reasonable limits for the model. The forecasts by the LN model at higher lead times (up to 6 hours) are found to be good. A relative evaluation of LN model performance with that of an ANN model and of a multiple linear regression model indicates that the LN model effectively combines the strength of the other two, implying that the LN model seems to be well suited to exploit the information to model the nonlinear dynamics of the rainfall‐runoff process.