Abstract
Safety is crucial to ensure the sustainability of aviation growth. To better clarify the influences of human factors on aviation accident risks, this study developed a hybrid HFACS-BN model (HFACS: Human Factors Analysis and Classification System; BN: Bayesian Network). The authors designed and implemented a questionnaire survey based on the four-level HFACS framework and collected valid data from 180 out of 649 aviation professionals working in the Ulaanbaatar International Airport, Mongolian in 2017. The model identified 35 major human factors out of 129 factors. The model validation was performed in terms of content validity and predictive validity. The results showed that even though a majority of respondents perceived that many human factors had a middle- or high-effect on aviation accident risks, the probability of the risks caused by human factors was estimated to be just 1.37%. The Unsafe Acts level is most influential to the risks among the four levels, while the Unsafe Supervision level contributes least. It is revealed that enhancing aviation professionals’ awareness of human factors should make full use of causal chaining effects among human factors. Finally, this study contributes to the literature from the perspectives of both methodological development and important empirical analysis.
Highlights
Safety is crucial to sustainable aviation growth [1]
Based on Reason’s organizational model of human errors, Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) was originally developed for US naval aviation, and its developments were described in a series of papers and books
The value 1.37% was calculated by linking all human factors in Figure 5 to the final target variable “Unsafe Acts”, which is the share of all “Unsafe Acts” items with high-effect evaluation answered by respondents
Summary
Safety is crucial to sustainable aviation growth [1]. The overall safety record of commercial aircrafts has been getting better and better in recent years. Advanced technologies and well-trained air traffic controllers have improved aviation safety remarkably, while existing studies have continuously emphasized human factors as the main cause of aviation accidents [2]. In this context, human factors sustainability is important, which refers to ‘the development of a working environment, process, and infrastructure that enables the human factors considerations to support the success of operations in the long-term’ [3]. Various efforts have been made to improve aviation safety by eliminating human errors, and globally, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has always been devoted to improving human factors research achievements and adapting the latest ones into the aviation industry
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