A hybrid electricity load prediction system based on weighted fuzzy time series and multi-objective differential evolution

Abstract

With advances in science and technology, the demand for electricity is increasing dramatically. Consequently, reliable short-term power load prediction is critical to ensure the safety, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness of electricity grids. However, owing to the volatility and randomness of power load time series, traditional forecasting models have struggled to meet the current power system requirements for load prediction precision and stability. In light of this, this study proposes a new hybrid short-term electricity load prediction system that combines the variational modal decomposition (VMD) technique, multi-objective differential evolutionary algorithm (MODE), and weighted fuzzy time series (WFTS) prediction model to increase load prediction precision and stability. Four Belgian datasets (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) were used for short-term power load prediction experiments and were compared with prevalent prediction methods. The experimental results indicate that the designed system obtains MAPESpring=0.6670%, MAPESummer=0.5835%, MAPEAutumn=0.7049%, MAPEWinter=0.7123% and STDSpring=60.2575, STDSpring=62.6573, STDSpring=72.7393, STDSpring=71.5549, which are obviously superior to the comparison models in terms of prediction accuracy and stability.