A hybrid decision tool for optimizing broccoli production in a changing climate

Abstract

Climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme weathers (e.g. drought) in California. California is a leading state for vegetable production in United States (U.S.). Since vegetables are very sensitive to extreme weathers, it is critical to evaluate the effects of climate change on yield and to find the potential adaptive management strategies for the sustainable vegetable production. The objectives of this study were to develop a plant-oriented cropping model to evaluate the impacts of different cropping managements on yields under various climate condition and atmospheric CO2 levels. To improve modeling performance, numerous previous studies that reported broccoli yields in different managements were used. After model calibration and validation, 560 scenarios under the conditions of combinations of climate changes, four broccoli cultivars, five nitrogen fertilizer application rates, and four plant densities were simulated in two study locations in Monterey County, CA where produces almost 40% of total California broccoli production. Based on results from 33,600 simulations, broccoli yields were highly related to nitrogen fertilizer application. However, at high nitrogen rates (above 75 kg N ha−1), yields were barely changed. In general, under stressful conditions, all cultivars produced their maximum yields at low plant density, and their yields did not respond to addition of nutrient in soil. However, CO2 enrichment and warmer temperature under RCP8.5 pathways, yield responded positively with fertilizer application rate and plant density. It seems likely that the effects of cropping managements will depend upon CO2 level and temperature.