A Hybrid Approach for Regional Low-Flow Frequency Analysis for the Upper Tigris and Euphrates Basin

Abstract

The Tigris and Euphrates basin is a challenging watershed because its water resources are critical for five countries. Therefore, this research analyzed and estimated the low flow index and its risk of occurrence. Based on 30 unregulated stations in the upper Tigris and Euphrates basin, different low flow indexes were estimated. A multivariate and hybrid principle component regression (PCR) regional model was used to assign the relationship between basin characteristics and low flow indexes in the homogeneous regions. The model performance showed that the principle component regression outperformed the regression models. The jackknife procedure indicated that the model performance for short-duration low flows is weak, but it is relatively good for long-duration low flows. This study suggests that hydrologic drought of the Tigris and Euphrates basin should be investigated more carefully for better water resources management in the changing socio-environmental system of the Middle East.