A Hybrid Approach Based on Unequal Span Segmentation-Clustering for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Abstract

Because the fluctuation and uncertainty of wind power generation bring severe secure and economic challenges to power systems, wind power forecasting becomes the critical part of the management in power systems. In this paper, a hybrid approach based on unequal span segmentation-clustering is proposed to mine the variation trend information in the wind speed series for improving forecasting performance. Firstly, the wind speed series representation is proposed to accurately represent the major variation trend of the wind speed series. It reduces the influence of the non-stationary and irregular behaviors of the wind speed series on the unequal span segmentation-clustering. Secondly, the shape-position comprehensive evaluation is proposed to combine shape and position measures to evaluate the clustering of the trend segments with unequal length. It identifies the trend segments which have comprehensive similarity on both shape and position to better construct forecasting models. Thirdly, novel bayesian optimization mutation operators are proposed to optimally move or add cut points in the unequal span segmentation. It enhances the local search capability of the unequal span segmentation. By comparing different approaches using wind datasets from two wind farms, the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach are demonstrated.