A hybrid approach based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise for multi-step-ahead solar radiation forecasting

Abstract

Abstract Accurate measurements of solar radiation are required to ensure that power and energy systems continue to function effectively and securely. On the other hand, estimating it is extremely challenging due to the non-stationary behaviour and randomness of its components. In this research, a novel hybrid forecasting model, namely complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise–Gaussian process regression (CEEMDAN–GPR), has been developed for daily global solar radiation prediction. The non-stationary global solar radiation series is transformed by CEEMDAN into regular subsets. After that, the GPR model uses these subsets as inputs to perform its prediction. According to the results of this research, the performance of the developed hybrid model is superior to two widely used hybrid models for solar radiation forecasting, namely wavelet–GPR and wavelet packet–GPR, in terms of mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination and relative root mean square error values, which reached 3.23 MJ/m2/day, 1.80 MJ/m2/day, 95.56%, and 8.80%, respectively (for one-step forward forecasting). The proposed hybrid model can be used to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the electricity system.