A Human Migration Model with Consistent Conjectures

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a human migration model using the concept of a conjectural variations equilibrium (CVE). In contrast to previous works we extend the model to the case where the conjectural variations coefficients may be not only constants, but also (continuously differentiable) functions of the total population at the destination and of the group's fraction in it. Moreover, we allow these functions to take distinct values at the abandoned location and at the destination. As an experimental verification of the proposed model, we develop a specific form of the model based upon relevant population data of a threecity agglomeration at the boundary of two Mexican states: Durango (Dgo.) and Coahuila (Coah.) Namely, we consider the 1980-2005 dynamics of population growth in the three cities: Torreon (Coah.), Gomez Palacio (Dgo.) and Lerdo (Dgo.), and propose utility functions of four various kinds for each of the three cities. After having collected necessary information about the average movement and transportation costs for each pair of the cities, we apply the abovementioned human migration model to this example. Numerical experiments have been conducted revealing interesting results concerning the consistency of probable conjectural variations equilibrium states.