Abstract
Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world’s population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300 Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20 % to 30 % of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2°C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2°C target after a particular development threshold is reached. For example, in each time step of five years, countries with an HDI of 0.85 would need to reduce their per capita emissions by approx. 17% and countries with an HDI of 0.9 by 33 %. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100 Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2°C.
Highlights
Consensus emerging in favor of low CO2 stabilization targets requires the participation of developing countries in the efforts to reduce global green-house emissions [1]
We find that the per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning are exponentially correlated with human development – highlighting the often disregarded social-dimension of emissions reductions
By using the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) threshold of 0.8 to differentiate countries with high human development from developing countries with medium to low human development [30], estimated global CO2 emissions are divided into two budgets
Summary
Consensus emerging in favor of low CO2 stabilization targets requires the participation of developing countries in the efforts to reduce global green-house emissions [1]. The potential implications of such reductions on development standards remain unclear [3] as developing countries are expected to extensively rely on fossil energy to fuel their current development needs [4]. In addition to potential development implications, a fair allocation of responsibility regarding CO2 emissions reduction between developed and developing countries remains a controversial topic [5,6]. How to account for the responsibility of developed countries regarding historical CO2 emissions [7] and to what extent technological and political inertia impose limits to the range of strategies envisioning the implementation of reduction schemes [8] are questions that remain largely unanswered. Developing countries have expressed their concerns on the points raised, questioning if development goals can – or cannot – be met under current technological and population trends [9]
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