Abstract
Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, including academics and researchers, convened to identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the conservation of biological diversity. These include the impacts of and potential human responses to climate change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this process and collation annually.
Highlights
The use of horizon scanning in conservation is increasing
It has been suggested that Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) use horizon scanning to develop its work program [16], and Germany is already doing so to guide its input to the Platform
As in previous annual horizon scans, the environmental effects of some of the issues that we identified this year may be valued by society, whereas others may be considered undesirable (e.g., PIB or exploitation of Antarctica)
Summary
The use of horizon scanning in conservation is increasing. A parallel series of exercises has identified forthcoming changes in legislation that are likely to affect countries in the UK, the rest of the EU, and elsewhere [8,9,10]. If forthcoming major issues are identified, another measure of the importance of horizon scanning is the extent to which it encourages researchers to study emerging topics, and policy makers and practitioners to be vigilant and consider their responses should the issues be realized (e.g., [15]).
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