A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination.

Claire Kremen,Sarina Jepsen,Mark J.F. Brown,Marie-Pierre Chauzat,Jane C. Stout,Dave Goulson,Oliver Schweiger,Andrew B. Barron,Jilian Li,Simon G. Potts,Breno M. Freitas,Katherine C.R. Baldock,Colleen L. Seymour,Lynn V. Dicks,David E. Pattemore,Peter Neumann,Robert J. Paxton

doi:10.7717/peerj.2249

Abstract

Background. Pollinators, which provide the agriculturally and ecologically essential service of pollination, are under threat at a global scale. Habitat loss and homogenisation, pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators. Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. However, future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines.Methods.Using a horizon scanning approach we identified issues that are likely to impact pollinators, either positively or negatively, over the coming three decades.Results.Our analysis highlights six high priority, and nine secondary issues. High priorities are: (1) corporate control of global agriculture, (2) novel systemic pesticides, (3) novel RNA viruses, (4) the development of new managed pollinators, (5) more frequent heatwaves and drought under climate change, and (6) the potential positive impact of reduced chemical use on pollinators in non-agricultural settings.Discussion. While current pollinator management approaches are largely driven by mitigating past impacts, we present opportunities for pre-emptive practice, legislation, and policy to sustainably manage pollinators for future generations.

Highlights

Pollinators provide the key ecosystem service of pollination to agricultural crops and wild plants, with 35% of global crop production relying to some degree on pollination (Klein et al, 2007), along with more than 85% of wild flowering plants (Ollerton, Winfree & Tarrant, 2011)
While there is some evidence that such approaches might be mitigating pollinator losses (e.g., Carvalheiro et al, 2013), future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines
We have identified a series of horizon issues, both positive and negative, for pollinators

Summary

Introduction

Pollinators provide the key ecosystem service of pollination to agricultural crops and wild plants, with 35% of global crop production relying to some degree on pollination (Klein et al, 2007), along with more than 85% of wild flowering plants (Ollerton, Winfree & Tarrant, 2011). While there is some evidence that such approaches might be mitigating pollinator losses (e.g., Carvalheiro et al, 2013), future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines. Pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. Future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines.

Methods

Results

Conclusion