A holistic safety assessment for cargo holds and decks fire & explosion risks under fuzzy Bayesian networks approach

Abstract

Fire and explosion are one of the fatal causalities frequently encountered in maritime transportation. Due to technical or/and human error, fire and explosion can be occurred either in the cargo hold or deck of bulk carriers. According to the EMSA report (2022), fire and explosion causalities were ranked 4th on the top. Fire and explosion accidents onboard may pose hazards for human life and the maritime environment. In this context, performing a comprehensive risk assessment is of paramount importance for safer navigation, cargo operation, and the marine environment. This study aims to assess the risks, including human errors, of fire and explosion accidents in cargo holds and decks of bulk carriers under the fuzzy Bayesian networks (BN) approach. Since BN provides a robust tool for calculating the conditional probability of risk, fuzzy sets deal with uncertainty and ambiguity during expert judgments. The outcomes of the paper are expected to contribute to bulk carrier ship owners, safety superintendents, HSEQ managers, Master, Chief officers, and crew on-board ships to understand basic events that may cause fire and explosion and to improve safety at the operational level.