Abstract

Abstract. The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL (a topography-based hydrological model) was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments, the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL. A final section addresses the question of what might be done now in seeking a simple, parametrically parsimonious model of hillslope and small catchment processes if we were starting again.

Highlights

  • The story of TOPMODEL starts when Mike Kirkby (MK) was at the University of Bristol, where he worked with his PhD student Darrel Weyman in the East Twin catchment in the Mendips

  • TOPMODEL is a rainfall-runoff model that has its origins in the recognition of the dynamic nature of runoff contributing areas in the 1960s and 1970s that had been revealed in the data analysis of partial area contributions of Betson (1964) in Tennessee, USA; the field experience of Dunne and Black (1970) in Vermont, USA; and Weyman (1970, 1973) in the Mendips, UK

  • The first TOPMODEL paper submitted to a journal was rejected without being refereed by the Journal of Hydrology by one of its editors, Eamonn Nash, in a short letter as “being of too local interest” before later being accepted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Hydrological Sciences Bulletin as Beven and Kirkby (1979)

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Summary

TOPMODEL: the background

TOPMODEL (a topography-based hydrological model) is a rainfall-runoff model that has its origins in the recognition of the dynamic nature of runoff contributing areas in the 1960s and 1970s that had been revealed in the data analysis of partial area contributions of Betson (1964) in Tennessee, USA; the field experience of Dunne and Black (1970) in Vermont, USA; and Weyman (1970, 1973) in the Mendips, UK. One critical observation from Darrel Weyman’s work was the synchronicity of flows in a throughflow trough and in the main channel, suggesting the possibility that subsurface runoff per unit area might be approximately spatially constant, which is a key underlying assumption of TOPMODEL While this may not be a general expectation, the consequent analysis of the response of the upper East Twin led to the concept of a topographic index (as a/tanβ, with a as upslope contributing area per unit contour length and tanβ as local slope).

A K tan β
TOPMODEL: from rejection without being refereed to highly cited
The attractions of TOPMODEL
The early days of digital terrain analysis
Evaluating the TOPMODEL assumptions
Extensions to the classic TOPMODEL concepts
Evaluating the spatial predictions of TOPMODEL
TOPMODEL calibration and uncertainty estimation
TOPMODEL and flood frequency estimation
10 A distributed TOPMODEL
11 Developing Dynamic TOPMODEL
12 Wider applications of TOPMODEL
Findings
13 What would we do now?
Full Text
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