A Histogram Model to Predict the Risk of Bleeding from Oesophageal and Gastric Variceal Rupture in Cirrhosis.

Abstract

To establish and verify a nomogram for individualized prediction of patients with oesophageal and gastric variceal rupture and haemorrhage in cirrhosis. Descriptive study. Department of Digestive Internal Medicine, Funan County People's Hospital, Anhui, China, from June 2017 to June 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for oesophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis. An individualized risk prediction model was established, which was validated by the parallel bootstrap method and an external validation set. It was found that emotional stimuli (OR=4.591, 95% CI: 1.419-14.852), improper diet (OR=3.702, 95% CI: 1.606-8.526), overwork (OR=3.529, 95% CI: 1.331-9.366), lower temperature (OR=3.013, 95% CI:1.242-7.308), and increased abdominal pressure (OR=2.416, 95% CI: 0.900-6.487) were independent risk factors for oesophageal and gastric variceal bleeding in cirrhosis. A risk prediction model was established based on the five risk factors, and the R equation test showed that the C-index of the modelling group and the verification group was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.794-0.836) and 0.812 (95% CI: 0.793-0.831), respectively. The results of the correction curve showed little difference, which indicated that the risk prediction model has good accuracy and differentiation. Cirrhosis, Oesophagus varices and gastric fundus varices, Bleeding, Risk factors, Risk model, Validation.