A highly predictive cardiac positron emission tomography (PET) risk score for 90-day and one-year major adverse cardiac events and revascularization

Abstract

BackgroundWith the increase in cardiac PET/CT availability and utilization, the development of a PET/CT-based major adverse cardiovascular events, including death, myocardial infarction (MI), and revascularization (MACE-Revasc) risk assessment score is needed. Here we develop a highly predictive PET/CT-based risk score for 90-day and one-year MACE-Revasc. Methods and results11,552 patients had a PET/CT from 2015 to 2017 and were studied for the training and development set. PET/CT from 2018 was used to validate the derived scores (n = 5049). Patients were on average 65 years old, half were male, and a quarter had a prior MI or revascularization. Baseline characteristics and PET/CT results were used to derive the MACE-Revasc risk models, resulting in models with 5 and 8 weighted factors. The PET/CT 90-day MACE-Revasc risk score trended toward outperforming ischemic burden alone [P = .07 with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.85 vs 0.83]. The PET/CT one-year MACE-Revasc score was better than the use of ischemic burden alone (P < .0001, AUC 0.80 vs 0.76). Both PET/CT MACE-Revasc risk scores outperformed risk prediction by cardiologists. ConclusionThe derived PET/CT 90-day and one-year MACE-Revasc risk scores were highly predictive and outperformed ischemic burden and cardiologist assessment. These scores are easy to calculate, lending to straightforward clinical implementation and should be further tested for clinical usefulness.