Abstract
BackgroundRecent studies suggest that adolescent adiposity is established already in preadolescence. Earlier studies have confirmed a strong tracking of obesity from adolescence to adulthood. Our aim was to examine the diagnostic accuracy of a population-derived protocol for identification of preschool children at risk for obesity in preadolescence.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe analysed data obtained for child health surveillance up to age 5 from 5778 children born in a Swedish county in 1991. The basic data set included age, sex, and weight and height measurements from the regular checkups between ages 1.5 and 5. Data not routinely collected in the child health centre setting were disregarded. The children were at age 10 randomly assigned to protocol derivation and validation cohorts and assessed for obesity according to IOTF criteria. The accuracy of predicting obesity in the validation cohort was measured using decision precision, specificity, and sensitivity. The decision protocol selected 1.4% of preschool children as being at obesity risk. The precision of the protocol at age 10 was 82% for girls and 80% for boys, and the specificity was 100% for both boys and girls. The sensitivity was higher for girls (41%) than for boys (21%). The relative risk for obesity at age 10 estimated by the odds ratio for individuals selected by the protocol compared to non-selected peers was 212.6 (95% confidence interval 56.6 to 798.4) for girls and 120.3 (95% CI 24.5 to 589.9) for boys.Conclusion/SignificanceA simple and inexpensive decision protocol based on BMI values proved to have high precision and specificity for identification of preschool children at risk for obesity persisting into adolescence, while the sensitivity was low especially for boys. Implementation and further evaluations of the protocol in child health centre settings are warranted.
Highlights
The prevalence of childhood obesity and overweight is rapidly increasing worldwide,[1] and the North European countries are no exception.[2,3] Recent studies have suggested that major development of adiposity in young adults is fully established. by age 11 [4,5] This fact, that obesity evident in preadolescence indicates obesity in early adulthood with a high degree of accuracy, implies that preschool detection of obesity risk along with prevention at school age are becoming increasingly important
We found that obesity according to International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) criteria at both age 4 and age 5 checkups in boys, and a BMI 20 or above at the age 5 checkup for girls were strongly associated with obesity at age 10
These findings were used to construct a clinical protocol for selection of preschool children at high risk for obesity persisting into preadolescence and adolescence
Summary
The prevalence of childhood obesity and overweight is rapidly increasing worldwide,[1] and the North European countries are no exception.[2,3] Recent studies have suggested that major development of adiposity in young adults is fully established. by age 11 [4,5] This fact, that obesity evident in preadolescence indicates obesity in early adulthood with a high degree of accuracy, implies that preschool detection of obesity risk along with prevention at school age are becoming increasingly important. Our aim was to examine the diagnostic accuracy of a population-derived protocol for identification of preschool children at risk for obesity in preadolescence. The accuracy of predicting obesity in the validation cohort was measured using decision precision, specificity, and sensitivity. The decision protocol selected 1.4% of preschool children as being at obesity risk. The relative risk for obesity at age 10 estimated by the odds ratio for individuals selected by the protocol compared to non-selected peers was 212.6 (95% confidence interval 56.6 to 798.4) for girls and 120.3 (95% CI 24.5 to 589.9) for boys. A simple and inexpensive decision protocol based on BMI values proved to have high precision and specificity for identification of preschool children at risk for obesity persisting into adolescence, while the sensitivity was low especially for boys. Implementation and further evaluations of the protocol in child health centre settings are warranted
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