Abstract
Earthquake disaster management involves determining locations in which to construct shelters and how to allocate the affected population to them. A multi-objective, hierarchical mathematical model, allied with an interleaved modified particle swarm optimization algorithm and genetic algorithm (MPSO–GA), have been developed to solve the earthquake shelter location-allocation problem. From a set of candidate shelter locations, the model first determines which of these should act as emergency shelters and then which should be used as long-term shelters, while simultaneously optimizing the allocation of a population to them. Damage caused to evacuation routes is considered in addition to the number of evacuees and shelter capacity. In terms of the model’s emergency and long-term shelter stages, the objectives are to minimize (i) total weighted evacuation time, and (ii) total shelter area used. An interleaved MPSO–GA applied to the model yielded better results than achieved using MPSO or GA in isolation. For a case study with an earthquake affecting the area of Jinzhan within Beijing’s Chaoyang district in China, results generated present government with a range of solution options. Thus, based on government preferences, choices can be made regarding the locations in which to construct shelters and how to allocate the population to them.
Highlights
Since 1940, the number of floods and storms has followed an upward trend whereas drought and earthquakes has been relatively stable according to the record of EMDAT (2017)
This section presents a comparison of the algorithms mentioned in Section 4 demonstrating that the interleaved modified PSO (MPSO)–genetic algorithms (GAs) yields better solutions to the earthquake shelter location-allocation problem than if the MPSO algorithm or GA were used in isolation
In the context of the case study area of Jinzhan within the Chaoyang district of Beijing in China, results are presented from the application of the interleaved MPSO–GA to the model’s emergency shelter (EMS) and long-term shelter (LTS) stage, respectively
Summary
Since 1940, the number of floods and storms has followed an upward trend whereas drought and earthquakes has been relatively stable according to the record of EMDAT (2017). Most of the studies conducted have solved this problem by modifying site selection models first proposed between 1960–70, such as the P-median model (Hakimi 1964), P-centre model (Hakimi 1965) and covering model (Toregas et al 1971) These models have been used widely in disaster shelter location problems (Sherali et al 1991; Gama et al 2013; Bayram et al 2015; Kilci et al 2015). Bi-level models have been used widely to determine the shelter location and evacuee allocation before hurricanes and floods occur. Ng et al (2010) proposed a hybrid bi-level model for hurricane shelter determination and evacuees’ allocation in which the upper level selects shelter locations and the lower level gives the evacuation paths that are selected freely by evacuees. Widener and Horner (2011) developed a
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