A hierarchical deep model integrating economic facts for stock movement prediction

Abstract

Accurate stock movement prediction is essential to profit from the stock market. However, this task is challenging due to the complexity and non-stationary nature of the market. Deep learning methods have obtained more attention and success in mining price movement patterns.However, some limitations affect their performances. In general, the stock market is ever-changing, and many factors affect stock movement, so capturing the stock movement patterns is hard without enough prior information. To tackle it, we consider employing economic facts to help improve the deep learning method. In this paper, we propose a novel Hierarchical Deep learning Model that fuses Economic Facts (HDMEF) to predict stock movement from the micro to the macro tiers: the individual, industry, and whole market tiers. Specifically, we present three well-designed modules to separately model them based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the herding effects, and the holiday effects in the stock market. Experiments on the A-share CSI300 and CSI500 indexes demonstrate that our proposed method performs best on all test phases compared with previous competitive baselines, even an absolute improvement of 2%–3% on some test phases where all the baselines act poor, proving our method is more efficient and robust in different market conditions. In addition, we do an ablation study to analyze the role of various economic effects used in our model, and the results prove that each module is helpful for prediction.