A GROWING DEGREE-DAYS BASED TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS FOR PREDICTION OF SCHISTOSOMA JAPONICUM TRANSMISSION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE, CHINA

Abstract

It has been suggested that global warming may alter the frequency and transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. To test this claim for schistosomiasis, we conducted a time-series analysis from 1972-2002 for 39 of the 70 counties of Jiangsu province, eastern China, where Schistosoma japonicum is partially endemic. We used a modeling approach to estimate the annual growing degree-days (AGDD), employing a lower temperature threshold of 15.3 degrees C. Our final model included both temporal and spatial components, the former consisting of second order polynomials in time plus a seasonality component, whereas the spatial trend was formed by second order polynomials of the coordinates plus the thin-plate smoothing splines. We found that temperature increased over the past 30 years in all observing stations. There were distinct temporal trends with seasonality and periodicities of 12, 6, and 3 months, whereas only marginal spatial variation was observed. The predicted AGDDs for 2006 and 2003 showed increases for the entire Jiangsu province, with the AGDDs difference between these two time points exhibiting an increase from north to south. Our data suggest that changes in temperature will alter the extent and level of schistosomiasis transmission, which is relevant for the control of S. japonicum in a future warmer China.