A grey decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory approach for evaluating the disruption risk factors in the Emergency Life-Saving Drugs supply chains

Abstract

Emergency Life-Saving Drugs (ELSDs) are among the highest-priority healthcare necessities since they must be administered immediately to save patient lives and prevent complications in the most critical conditions. Due to this reason, it is vital to ensure a continuous and undisrupted supply chain (SC) network for ELSDs throughout the country. However, the SC network of ELSDs is very complex and unpredictable, requiring many stages and processes and involving many parties. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have increased these SC disruptions even to a greater extent. Due to the associated complexities and uncertainties, the efficient management of ELSDs SC is usually very challenging. Consequently, proper identification and evaluation of ELSDs SC disruption risks are crucial, of which few studies have concentrated yet, especially from an emerging economy perspective. This study aimed to identify and analyze the most impactful risk factors (RFs) that disrupt the ELSDs SC, particularly in a developing country context, to address this research gap. The study identified 14 key RFs to the ELSDs SC from relevant literature and expert feedback. Then, a combination of the Grey theory and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method was utilized in this study to assess and prioritize the RFs and show the interrelationships among them. The findings suggested that financial and economic risk, non-availability of critical raw material, an influx of infectious disease, and sudden natural disasters pose the greatest threats to the ELSDs SC. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted afterward to evaluate the robustness of the proposed framework. This research is expected to aid the managers of ELSDs SC in maintaining a continuous and undisrupted availability of these essential medicines to save the lives of millions of patients under critical care.