A GPS Data-Based Index to Determine the Level of Adherence to COVID-19 Lockdown Policies in India.

Abstract

The growth of COVID-19 cases in India is scaling high over the past weeks despite stringent lockdown policies. This study introduces a GPS-based tool, i.e., lockdown breaching index (LBI), which helps to determine the extent of breaching activities during the lockdown period. It is evaluated using the community mobility reports. This index ranges between 0 and 100, which implies the extent of following the lockdown policies. A score of 0 indicates that civilians strictly adhered to the guidelines while a score of 100 points to complete violation. Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is modified to compute the LBI. We considered fifteen states of India, where the spread of coronavirus is relatively dominant. A significant breaching activity is observed during the first phase of lockdown, and the intensity increased in the third and fourth phases of lockdown. Overall breaching activities are dominant in Bihar with LBI of 75.28. At the same time, it is observed that the majority of the people in Delhi adhered to the lockdown policies strictly, as reflected with an LBI score of 47.05, which is the lowest. Though an average rise of 3% breaching activities during the second phase of lockdown (L2.0) with reference to the first phase of lockdown (L1.0) is noticed in all the states, a decreasing trend is noticed in Delhi and Tamil Nadu. Since the beginning of third phase of lockdown L3.0, a significant rise in breaching activities is observed in every state considered for the analysis. The average LBI rise of 16.9% and 27.6% relative to L1.0 is observed at the end of L3.0 and L4.0, respectively. A positive spearman rank correlation of 0.88 is noticed between LBI and the cumulative confirmed cases. This correlation serves as evidence and enlightens the fact that the breaching activities could be one of the possible reasons that contributed to the rise in COVID-19 cases throughout lockdown.