A goal programming model for off-grid power planning with a case of Marinduque island

Abstract

Off-grid areas pose economic and technical challenges, often overlooked in national power planning. In the Philippines, the National Power Corporation manages mainly oil-based off-grid power assets, with issues of intermittency and reliability. This study proposes an optimal energy mix using non-preemptive Goal Programming combined with a pair-wise comparison to determine the penalty weights to balance energy security, affordability, sustainability, and self-sufficiency goals. Marinduque province serves as a case study, where it is identified that including renewable energy in the grid could help balance energy goals and reduce generation costs and emissions. Increased use of renewables can also satisfy demand and self-sufficiency goals, making electricity more affordable. Once electricity becomes more affordable, subsidies can be reduced and later on be removed. The study's recommendations can be a starting point for private investors and government agencies to improve the energy sector in off-grid areas.