A global perspective to achieve a low-carbon society (LCS): scenario analysis with the ETSAP-TIAM model

Abstract

Global warming caused by an increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities is threatening the natural and human environment by extinction of species, sea-level rise, and change in the availability of water or increased frequency of extreme weather events. Within the UK—Japan Low Carbon Society (LCS) project, the global, technology-rich ETSAP-TIAM model has been applied to analyse, by means of a scenario analysis, strategies to realize deep GHG emission reductions on a global level. The scenario analysis shows that, without any explicit abatement efforts, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are estimated to double by the middle of this century compared with the year 2000. With CO2 abatement measures being equivalent to a CO2 price of up to $100/t in 2050, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 23% relative to levels in 2000. Further efforts to halve CO2 emissions in 2050 relative to 2000 levels can be achieved in a future energy system characterized (besides efficiency improvements and increased use of renewables, especially biomass) by an almost entirely decarbonized power generation sector (through carbon capture and storage power plants, renewable technologies and nuclear power), which provides electricity as the major final energy carrier to the end-use sectors. Since the majority of the emission reductions occur in the present developing countries, cooperation between developed and developing countries in the implementation of these measures is indispensable in order to realize these ambitious reduction targets.