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Abstract
Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which ~73% is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1% of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on ~60% of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.
Highlights
Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world
We find that ~27% of the network is exposed to at least one hazard with a 1/250 return period and ~7.5% of the road and railway assets are exposed to a 1/100 years flood event, while in terms of expected annual exposure (EAE, defined as the sum of exposure levels multiplied by their respective return periods), about 0.5% of global assets are exposed to natural hazards
73% of the global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) is caused by surface and river flooding (Fig. 3a), followed by coastal floods (15.5%), earthquakes (7.3%), and tropical cyclones (3.8%)
Summary
Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to Reliable transport infrastructure is one of the backbones of a prosperous economy, providing access to markets, jobs, and social services[1] For this reason, the sustainable development goal (SDG) 9 calls for increased access to sustainable transport infrastructure in low and middle income countries. Further evidence on the damages that infrastructure networks face due to natural hazards at the global level is required to bring useful policy insights and guide possible revisions of infrastructure planning and design standards worldwide. Such results would be important for low income countries where investment needs are the highest, but risk assessments are scarce and disasters impacts on the economy are typically underestimated[7]. No global study addresses damaged networked infrastructure at the asset level, such as individual road segments or bridge structures
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