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Abstract
Natural disasters are hazardous geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, climatological, and/or biological events that disturb human and natural environments, causing injuries, casualties, property damages, and business interruptions. Sound analysis is required regarding the effective hazard preparedness for, response to, mitigation of, and recovery from natural disasters. This research proposes an expected risk analysis model of world natural disasters recorded for 1900–2015 in the Emergency Disaster Database compiled by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster. The model produces consistent estimates of country-level risks in terms of human casualty and economic loss. The expected risks, along with their standard deviations, and ranks for world 208 countries, are analyzed with highlights for the top 10, 20 and 30 countries. Normalized expected risks by country population density and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are also analyzed to further understand the relationships between risks and socio-economic measures. The results show that the model is a reasonably effective alternative to the existing risk analysis methods, based on the high correlations between the observed and estimated total risks. While riskier countries with higher expected risks and standard deviations are found in all continents, some developing countries such as China, India, Bangladesh, and Brazil, or developed countries, such as the United States, Japan, and Germany, are the hot-spots of global natural disasters. The model can be used as a new alternative approach to conduct country-level risk assessments or risk analyses of fatality, injured, affected, and damage—especially for countries’ governments to make sound disaster preparation, and mitigation decisions, sustainable policies, or plans regarding natural disasters.
Highlights
Natural hazards occur frequently around the world
One of the major findings of this research is that natural disasters occurred during the period of 1900 to 2015 severely impacted human lives and economies of countries—especially the top 10, 20, and 30 countries ranked by expected risks
The United States received the highest ranking in terms of natural disaster occurrence
Summary
Natural hazards occur frequently around the world. Some natural hazards turn into disasters after they cause tangible (or physical) impact, such as human fatalities and property damages; and intangible (non-physical) impacts, such as psychological, mental, and political wounds [1]. Research has shown that human casualties and economic losses due to natural disasters have been increasing over the last five decades [2,3]. This trend is likely to continue due to growing urbanization, rising populations, deepening industrialization, and worsening global environmental and climate change [4]. From 1950 to 1979, 1779 natural disasters occurred across the world, causing 4,860,449 casualties, 1,372,606 injuries, and $78 billion in property damages. From 1980 to 2015 the reported number of natural disasters increased to 11,494 or about 6.5 times as many as those in the period of 1950–1979: Causing 2,599,237 fatalities, 6,354,195 injuries and $2.71 trillion in property damages [5]
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