Abstract
Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation. However, little is known about the changes in exposure (for example, population and urban land) to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization, and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas. We present a global analysis of the changes in population size and urban land area in earthquake-prone areas from 1990 to 2015, and their impacts on earthquake-related fatalities. We found that more than two thirds of population growth (or 70% of total population in 2015) and nearly three quarters of earthquake-related deaths (or 307,918 deaths) in global earthquake-prone areas occurred in developing countries with an urbanization ratio (percentage of urban population to total population) between 20 and 60%. Holding other factors constant, population size was significantly and positively associated with earthquake fatalities, while the area of urban land was negatively related. The results suggest that fatalities increase for areas where the urbanization ratio is low, but after a ratio between 40 and 50% occurs, earthquake fatalities decline. This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios and highlights the need for further investigation. Our quantitative analysis is extended into the future using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to reveal that by 2050, more than 50% of the population increase in global earthquake-prone areas will take place in a few developing countries (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. To reduce earthquake-induced fatalities, enhanced resilience of buildings and urban infrastructure generally in these few countries should be a priority.
Highlights
IntroductionMigration to and concentration of global population in urban areas has reached 55% with an estimated 68% level anticipated by 2050 (UN 2019)
The process of urbanization remains an ongoing global phenomenon
We report the characteristics of earthquake-prone areas, the changes in population and urban land in earthquake-prone areas, and the relationship between exposure change and earthquake fatalities
Summary
Migration to and concentration of global population in urban areas has reached 55% with an estimated 68% level anticipated by 2050 (UN 2019). The outcome of this concentration of people, buildings, and other assets attributed to urbanization (Bloom et al 2008) is an increase in the exposure of populations to natural catastrophes, for example, earthquakes (UN 2015), floods (Pesaresi et al 2017), and disease spread (Alirol et al 2011). Due to the high cost of living in proximity to urban area (Ravallion and van de Walle 1991; Shucksmith et al 2009), the most vulnerable proportion of the population often lives in substandard residential building (Lankao and Qin 2011; UNHCR 2014; Nagendra et al 2018). The speed of building creation on the urban periphery can lead to construction that is often of questionable quality (Green 2008; Oteng-Ababio 2012), since the focus of development is often on gaining affordable access to urban occupational opportunities and amenities (Bilham 2009) rather than the quality of living produced by development
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
