A glimpse into the future: The 2023 temperature extremes in the North Atlantic in the context of longer-term climate change

Abstract

In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea-surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic which are outside the 4-sigma envelope of the 1982-2011 daily timeseries. Here we take a first look at the large-scale, longer-term drivers of these extrema. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (in the 12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W/m2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring continuous heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020 as was suggested elsewhere. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin. Outside the North Atlantic, around 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean has begun, leading to record low sea-ice extent in 2023. We suggest analysing the 2023 temperature extremes in the North Atlantic in the context of these recent global-scale ocean changes. Analysing climate and Earth System model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea-ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.