Abstract
Land use patterns essentially determine activity centre locations and opportunities for trip generation and attraction. Land uses signify the magnitude of travel demand and availability of transport patterns influences the future land uses. A number of literatures on land use and transport interactions show that the effects of land use change on transport appear to be more direct and stronger than the reverse. The main cause, in large part, is the important roles of trip generation and attraction, whose change of spatial distribution basically increases the number of trips and distances travelled between activity centres. Ignoring the mutual influences for the change between land use and transportation in long-term forecasting and planning can lead to decisions with unintended and undesirable consequences. This is more critical in developing countries cities where long-term travel demand forecasting and transportation infrastructure planning is seldom done as well as changes in land use are considerably high compared with the supply of transport infrastructure. This paper therefore reports upon a GIS-based integrated land use and transport model developed to determine effects of land use changes on travel demand. The model is developed based on vector map layers of the planned land uses, and changes obtained by overlaying the subsequent layers in ten-year intervals obtained from satellite images. The model is capable of performing a spatial-temporal analysis of land uses and illustrating effects on travel demand. The modelling system also supports analysis of policy measures that alternatively reduce the number of vehicle trips generated in the planned area.
Highlights
The development of a GIS-based model is among the fundamental strategies for addressing the effect of land use change in transport networks
This is more critical in developing countries cities where long-term travel demand forecasting and transportation infrastructure planning is seldom done as well as changes in land use are considerably high compared with the supply of transport infrastructure
The differences are obtained for the number of vehicle trips forecasted by using trip rates provided in the manual and trips forecasted by the application of new trip rates obtained in the study area
Summary
The development of a GIS-based model is among the fundamental strategies for addressing the effect of land use change in transport networks. Effective application of GIS-based model in developing countries is mainly challenged by inputs for the system manipulations that include data, hardware and manpower; the spatial-temporal integration capabilities; and the formulation of future alternatives prospects. The development of this system intends to achieve three objectives: 1) to efficiently determine the rates of spatial change for different land use categories in defined time intervals from map layers; 2) to effectively integrate the spatial features with the respective attributes and determine the number of trips generated by changed land uses within the given time intervals; 3) to efficiently analyse and present different scenarios for addressing the effects of land use change in the planned settlements. The model outputs are presented in graphs, charts and tables, and comparisons are presented in percentages
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