A GIS-based multi-criteria decision making method for the potential assessment and suitable sites selection of PV and CSP plants

Abstract

By combining geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method, this paper presents a framework to evaluate the suitable location and technical potentials for large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. With the assist of spatial tools, the potential locations are identified by extracting restrictive criteria (e.g. protected area, land cover, transport infrastructure, and orography). Using MCDM, the land suitability for PV and CSP plants is evaluated with the comprehensive consideration of different factors, such as climate, orography, water availability, and location, where factor weights are calculated by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. The study framework is illustrated by Ningxia, China, a key energy project area along the Belt and Road with abundant solar radiation. The obtained results suggested that the middle area of Ningxia is recommended for the solar power plant deployment. Besides, due to the limitation of water resource availability, PV technology is more appropriate for the study area than CSP technology. The estimated total technical potentials of PV and CSP systems could be 443 TWh/year and 308 TWh/year, indicating great potential for future solar energy development to enhance the renewable energy supply and participate in energy cooperation with the other regions. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impacts of system efficiency variation on energy output. The results can be used for the identification of the potential areas for solar power plant installation, as well as support for the synergic expansion of generation plants and the power grid.